24Feb 2017

MODELING AND FORECASTING GDP AT CURRENT MARKET PRICE IN BANGLADESH: AN APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL.

  • Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh MujiburRahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj.
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An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is useful to analyze time series data either for better understanding or for forecasting future points in the series. The ARIMA model is useful even when the data show evidence of non-stationarity, where an initial differencing step is applied to remove the non-stationarity. In this study, it is tried to find out the trend in GDP at current market price of Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins approach for ARIMA model based on the GDP at current market price data of Bangladesh from 1989-90 to 2014-15. Initially, evidence of non-stationarity was found in the data using the Dickey-Fuller test and the non- stationarity was removed by taking first differences. Then using the model selection criteria, AIC, ARIMA (0,2,1) model has been selected and it has been used to forecast GDP at current market price of Bangladesh up to 2026-27. It is hoped that the forecasts would be useful for researcher and policy makers.

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[Biplab Biswas and Wahiduzzaman. (2017); MODELING AND FORECASTING GDP AT CURRENT MARKET PRICE IN BANGLADESH: AN APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL. Int. J. of Adv. Res. 5 (Feb). 1223-1232] (ISSN 2320-5407). www.journalijar.com

Biplab Biswas
Department of Statistics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University

DOI:

Article DOI: 10.21474/IJAR01/3275      
DOI URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.21474/IJAR01/3275

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